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論文 |
論文
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Jumpei Tanaka
概要:
The purpose of this paper is to formulate the growth process of asset bubbles which is consistent with actual experience
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s of bubbles characterized by the emergence, expansion, and sudden crash and to analyze its effects on dynamic aspects of the economy. We show that if we remove the assumption of perfect foresight of all agents from the standard model of rational self-fulfi lling bubbles, such a growth process of bubbles, which we call “non-self-fulfi lling bubbles”, can be formulated. We also investigate the endogenous timing of the crash of non-self-fulfi lling bubbles, growth and welfare effects of them, and a public policy which cuts the duration of the process of non-self-fulfi lling bubbles short.
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| 2.
論文 |
論文
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Jumpei Tanaka
概要:
We investigate how large is the social benefit (or cost) of the stock price bubble formulated by Olivier (2000). We cons
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ider three types of the bubble: continuous non-self-fulfilling bubble (CNB), and temporal non-self-fulfilling bubble (TNB), and self-fulfilling bubble (SB). Under the condition that utilities of all generations are evaluated almost equally we show that (ⅰ) the existence of CNB improves the social welfare and its extent is equilvalent to subsidizing (gB - g0) / gB (>0) rate of a wage income to all generations in the bubbleless economy (where g0 and gB are the growth rate of the economy without bubble and with bubble, respectively), (ⅱ) the welfare property of TNB is neutral in that the social welfare level of the economy with TNB is exactly equal to that of the bubbleless economy, and (ⅲ) the existence of SB harms the social welfare and its extent is equilvalent to imposing (g0 - gB) / gB (>0) rate of a wage income tax to all generations.
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